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HotPads Foreclosure Maps Heat Up Congressional Elections; Again



2010 Average Foreclosure Rate
Democrats: 0.422%
Republicans: 0.550%
2010 Median Foreclosure Rate
Democrats: 0.266%
Republicans: 0.375%

Will housing trends impact the upcoming Congressional elections? Absolutely. That's why HotPads released its second interactive Congressional District Foreclosure and Rent Ratio Heat Maps (see 2008 stats here), helping visualize housing data which will shape the 2010-2012 political landscape.

The data shows Democrat represented districts faring noticeably better in 2010 compared to Republican districts, which are experiencing 31% higher foreclosure rates compared to Democratic counterparts. HotPads also identified the best and worst performing congressional districts as well as other surprising housing trends.



The Political Heat Map (calculated using all homes that are currently in the foreclosure process) shows Democrat districts experiencing a 10% foreclosure decrease (from .47 in 2008 to .42 in 2010) while Republican districts seeing a 10% increase (from .50 in 2008 to .55 in 2010).   At the same time, Democrats represent 27 of the 50 worst performing districts, while Republican make up only 23.

The Rent Ratio Heat Map, introduced in 2008, highlights areas where it makes more sense to rent and where it makes sense to buy. This is calculated by dividing an area's median house price by annual rent (try it out here). On a national level, 2010 average rent ratio has decreased to 9.96 from 12.89 in 2008, meaning over the last two years buying became a cheaper option than renting. Decreasing home values and steady rent may in part explain this trend.

The Foreclosure Heat Map data shows that States with a troubled housing market in 2008 remain mostly unchanged, with California, NevadaArizona, and Florida showing highest housing instability again in 2010.  The construction boom in these states before the market downturn created a surplus of new homes and subsequently contributed to home value depreciations, creating conditions for higher foreclosures.

Foreclosure Percent Change 2008 - 2010 (Worst)
District 2008 2010 % Change Representative
Kansas 3 0.011% 0.410% 3627% Dennis Moore
Louisiana 6 0.008% 0.274% 3325% Bill Cassidy
Wisconsin 6 0.013% 0.445% 3323% Thomas E. Petri
New York 4 0.010% 0.318% 3080% Carolyn McCarthy
Virginia 6 0.004% 0.125% 3025% Robert W. Goodlatte
Alabama 4 0.010% 0.226% 2160% Robert Aderholt
Hawaii 2 0.015% 0.320% 2033% Mazie Hirono
Nebraska 2 0.010% 0.183% 1730% Lee Terry
Virginia 5 0.005% 0.080% 1500% Thomas S. P. Perriello
Louisiana 3 0.005% 0.075% 1400% Charlie Melancon
Hawaii 1 0.008% 0.105% 1213% Charles Djou
Virginia 4 0.020% 0.244% 1120% J. Randy Forbes
New York 3 0.024% 0.287% 1096% Peter T. King
Minnesota 4 0.028% 0.328% 1071% Betty McCollum
New Mexico 1 0.046% 0.514% 1017% Martin Heinrich
Virginia 9 0.001% 0.011% 1000% Frederick C. Boucher
Minnesota 6 0.034% 0.359% 956% Michele Bachmann
Minnesota 2 0.027% 0.278% 930% John Kline
Wisconsin 1 0.055% 0.562% 922% Paul Ryan
New York 14 0.001% 0.010% 900% Carolyn B. Maloney

Foreclosure Percent Change 2008 - 2010 (Best)
District 2008 2010 % Change Representative
Connecticut 4 0.097% 0.009% -91% Jim Himes
Connecticut 3 0.137% 0.013% -91% Rosa L. DeLauro
Connecticut 5 0.118% 0.015% -87% Chris Murphy
Louisiana 5 0.007% 0.001% -86% Rodney Alexander
Connecticut 1 0.114% 0.018% -84% John Larson
Connecticut 2 0.087% 0.015% -83% Joe Courtney
Florida 20 1.452% 0.325% -78% Debbie Wasserman
Florida 13 1.049% 0.237% -77% Vern Buchanan
Iowa 5 0.048% 0.013% -73% Steve King
California 5 3.153% 0.867% -73% Doris Matsui
California 11 3.169% 1.039% -67% Jerry McNerney
Florida 19 1.300% 0.450% -65% Ted Deutch
Wyoming At Large 0.048% 0.017% -65% Cynthia Lummis
Florida 6 0.693% 0.251% -64% Cliff Stearns
Illinois 18 0.054% 0.020% -63% Aaron Schock
California 18 4.597% 1.716% -63% Dennis Cardoza
Tennessee 5 0.205% 0.081% -60% Jim Cooper
West Virginia 2 0.005% 0.002% -60% Shelley M. Capito
New York 27 0.102% 0.042% -59% Brian Higgins
Maine 2 0.012% 0.005% -58% Mike Michaud

Comparing foreclosure percent changes from 2008 to 2010, Moore (D, Kansas 3)Cassidy (D, Louisiana 6)Petri (R, Wisconsin 6)McCarthy (D, New York 4) represent highest foreclosure growth districts while Shays (R, Connecticut 4)Delauro (D, Connecticut 3)Murphy (D, Connecticut 5)Alexander (R, Louisiana 5), Larson (D, Connecticut 1) represent districts with best improvements from 2008. 




What's Happened Since the 2008 Elections?
2008
2010
District Congressman Foreclosures
/ Households
Rent Ratio Foreclosures
/ Households
Rent Ratio % Change Change
California 18 Dennis Cardoza 4.597% 15.440    1.716% 10.859 -62.67% -
California 45 Bono Mack, Mary 4.518% 10.230    2.447% 7.331 -45.84% -
Nevada 3 Dina Titus 4.459% 11.110    5.177% 6.138 16.10% +
California 43 Joe Baca 4.162% 9.630    1.784% 6.844 -57.14% -
Florida 14 Connie Mack IV 4.041% 11.590    1.957% 9.240 -51.57% -
California 41 Jerry Lewis 4.010% 12.500    2.097% 9.716 -47.71% -
California 25 Buck McKeon 3.861% 10.220    1.785% 8.069 -53.77% -
California 44 Ken Calvert 3.596% 13.270    1.743% 12.642 -51.53% -
Nevada 1 Shelley Berkley 3.229% 11.370    3.482% 6.016 7.84% +
California 11 Jerry McNerney 3.169% 19.280    1.039% 11.682 -67.21% -
California 5 Doris Matsui 3.153% 9.050    0.867% 9.361 -72.50% -
California 22 Kevin McCarthy 3.118% 14.530    1.513% 11.900 -51.48% -
Arizona 4 Ed Pastor 2.983% 13.920    2.556% 4.765 -14.31% -
Arizona 2 Trent Franks 2.588% 12.740    2.903% 7.627 12.17% +
Arizona 6 Jeff Flake 2.565% 17.490    3.462% 7.364 34.97% +
California 3 Dan Lungren 2.538% 12.520    1.199% 11.819 -52.76% -
California 7 George Miller 2.530% 13.810    1.217% 7.197 -51.90% -
California 51 Bob Filner 2.474% 8.930    1.439% 7.276 -41.84% -
California 20 Jim Costa 2.358% 13.990    1.092% 9.405 -53.69% -
California 16 Zoe Lofgren 2.335% 13.050    1.276% 12.728 -45.35% -

Interestingly, the top 20 districts with the highest foreclosure rates in 2008 show a 37% reversal in 2010, with the exclusion of representatives Titus (R, Nevada 3), Berkley (D, Nevada 1), Franks (R, Arizona 2), and Flake (R, Arizona 6) who's districts saw a foreclosure increase from 2008. In part, the 2010 foreclosure rate decrease among the hardest hit districts in 2008 can be attributed to the foreclosure rush at the peak of the financial downturn in 2008. 

We also compared the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which quantifies the degree to which a region is liberal or conservative, against foreclosure rates. Surprisingly, among the top 25 most liberal and top 25 most conservative districts, liberal districts had 60% higher foreclosure rates than conservative districts.

The 2010 congressional heat map outlines all 435 districts and shows the foreclosure environments in each. Zooming into the map unveils the districts' party affiliation and informs users about local housing conditions, making it an indispensable tool for anyone following US politics. 

In addition to mapping housing conditions, HotPads.com helps users visually browse districts by party affiliationrent ratio, income, and age. Users interested in a more granular search can easily organize the map by city, state, zip code, and county.

Releasing the industry's first interactive heat map linking politics to the housing market in 2008, HotPads.com is committed to tracking market trends and making housing data easily accessible by all. HotPads.com is an innovative, map based real estate search engine helping close to 2.5 million monthly users find their new home.


Top 20 Most Foreclosed Districts : 2010
Rank (1 = Worst) State District Foreclosures Per Household Rent Ratio Congressman Party District
1 NV 3 5.177% 6.138 Dina Titus D Nevada 3
2 NV 1 3.482% 6.016 Shelley Berkley D Nevada 1
3 AZ 6 3.462% 7.364 Jeff Flake R Arizona 6
4 AZ 2 2.903% 7.627 Trent Franks R Arizona 2
5 AZ 4 2.556% 4.765 Ed Pastor D Arizona 4
6 CA 45 2.447% 7.331 Mary Bono Mack R California 45
7 AZ 3 2.139% 7.674 John B. Shadegg R Arizona 3
8 CA 41 2.097% 9.716 Jerry Lewis R California 41
9 FL 14 1.957% 9.240 Connie Mack IV R Florida 14
10 GA 7 1.796% 9.011 John Linder R Georgia 7
11 CA 25 1.785% 8.069 Buck McKeon R California 25
12 CA 43 1.784% 6.844 Joe Baca D California 43
13 IL 2 1.771% 5.690 Jesse Jackson, Jr. D Illinois 2
14 CA 44 1.743% 12.642 Ken Calvert R California 44
15 CA 18 1.716% 10.859 Dennis Cardoza D California 18
16 AZ 5 1.711% 7.825 Harry Mitchell D Arizona 5
17 AZ 7 1.704% 6.992 Raśl M. Grijalva D Arizona 7
18 NV 2 1.672% 12.818 Dean Heller D Nevada 2
19 IL 14 1.622% 8.087 Bill Foster D Illinois 14
20 IL 8 1.554% 7.222 Melissa Bean D Illinois 8
21 CA 22 1.513% 11.900 Kevin McCarthy R California 22
22 AZ 1 1.474% 10.838 Ann Kirkpatrick D Arizona 1


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